Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 15.381044 18.689881 22.353727 26.686338 31.643681 37.112674 43.575372
2025-11-09 10.556262 14.816828 20.046573 26.825879 35.261871 45.292306 57.988976
2025-11-16 7.765029 12.283337 18.308496 26.687735 37.775335 51.671888 70.104104
2025-11-23 5.752728 10.182474 16.554371 25.979803 39.118022 56.313557 79.991848
2025-11-30 4.731128 9.224561 16.112285 26.823018 42.376776 63.422093 93.229791
2025-12-07 3.687425 7.967793 14.976110 26.435655 43.757226 67.953526 103.146483
2025-12-14 3.008912 7.155400 14.364244 26.685813 45.964490 73.629870 114.767997
2025-12-21 2.243650 5.979272 12.941168 25.448050 45.771914 75.795740 121.501340
2025-12-28 1.901352 5.549019 12.724411 26.108893 48.476337 82.223593 134.470689
2026-01-04 1.579778 5.073689 12.339623 26.414404 50.593209 87.829024 146.419154
2026-01-11 1.332955 4.699489 12.080829 26.889147 52.976186 93.899218 159.228621
2026-01-18 1.156523 4.448500 12.023313 27.702540 55.940912 100.954446 173.713588
2026-01-25 0.901207 3.919938 11.342363 27.363947 57.071179 105.424076 184.844896
2026-02-01 0.722279 3.542959 10.928279 27.497925 59.041113 111.346983 198.487818
2026-02-08 0.564329 3.157373 10.413952 27.356590 60.481244 116.441382 210.989381
2026-02-15 0.415430 2.717414 9.669125 26.634861 60.782833 119.638543 220.579301
2026-02-22 0.353279 2.581788 9.671844 27.494460 64.058266 127.902427 238.460041
2026-03-01 0.264755 2.271050 9.135498 27.099585 64.908247 132.074220 249.870884
2026-03-08 0.210680 2.083705 8.902450 27.354598 67.012091 138.453179 265.033510
2026-03-15 0.139365 1.726193 8.068453 26.092711 66.013344 139.368699 271.223610
2026-03-22 0.114873 1.633148 8.041203 26.766465 68.942834 147.297757 289.255886
2026-03-29 0.090027 1.508039 7.877217 27.077920 71.136440 153.978383 305.364166
2026-04-05 0.071766 1.410955 7.786291 27.561869 73.708627 161.418358 322.936335